corona virus-Covid19

COVID-19 Resource Tool Estimates Maximum Numbers of Cases That Can Be Managed Daily Interview with:

Dr. Nathan Stall

Nathan Stall, MD, FRCPC
Geriatrics and Internal Medicine (Clinical Associate)
Sinai Health System and the University Health Network Hospitals
PhD Candidate, Clinical Epidemiology & Health Care Research
Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation
Eliot Phillipson Clinician-Scientist Training Program

Vasily Giannakeas

Vasily Giannakeas

Vasily Giannakeas, MPH
Epidemiologist/ Dedicated ICES Analyst
Women’s College Hospital

Toronto, Ontario, Canada What is the background for this study?

Response: As some health care systems approach collapse, a pressing need exists for tools modeling the capacity of acute and critical care systems during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We developed an online tool to estimate the maximum number of COVID-19 cases that could be managed per day within the catchment area served by a health care system, given acute and critical care resource availability.

The COVID-19 Acute and Intensive Care Resource Tool (CAIC-RT) is open access and available at What should readers take away from your report?

Response:  By using an online tool, health care systems can estimate the maximum number of COVID-19 cases per day that could be managed on the basis of age-based case distribution and severity and the number of maximally available acute and critical care resources. Unlike forecasting instruments, our tool determines a sustainable threshold for resource use during the pandemic rather than forecasting when resources might become depleted on the basis of assumptions about reporting, epidemic growth, and reproduction numbers.

Outputs from the tool allow planners to examine how increases in acute and critical resources available for patients with COVID-19 can affect health care system sustainability. Finally, the tool allows customization of age-based case distribution and severity, which is essential for countries with differing population demographics and health care systems. What recommendations do you have for future research as a result of this work?

Response: Future research should consider modelling other factors limiting the containment and mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic including access to personal protective equipment, diagnostic testing, medications and health human resources.

No disclosures.


Estimating the Maximum Capacity of COVID-19 Cases Manageable per Day Given a Health Care System’s Constrained Resources

Vasily Giannakeas, MPH; Deepit Bhatia, MPH; Matthew T. Warkentin, MSc; Isaac I. Bogoch, MD; Nathan M. Stall, MD

Published:Ann Intern Med. 2020.



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May 12, 2020 @ 1:54 am

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