Breast Cancer Pattern Likely To Change as Population Ages

Philip S. Rosenberg, PhD Biostatistics Branch, Senior Investigator Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Drive Bethesda, MD 20892MedicalResearch.com Interview with:
Philip S. Rosenberg, PhD
Biostatistics Branch, Senior Investigator
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics
National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Drive
Bethesda, MD 20892 

Medical Research: What is the background for this study? What are the main findings?

Dr. Rosenberg: It has been previously reported that breast cancer burden (number of new cases diagnosed in a year) is expected to rise in the future, mostly due to the aging of the female population in the US.

Also, it has been established that the age-adjusted breast cancer incidence rates (cases per 100,000 women per year) are increasing for invasive ER-positive cancers overall and decreasing for ER-negative cancers overall. When taken together, these two trends tend balance each other out, resulting in a somewhat flat breast cancer incidence rate overall. 

Though the overall trends for invasive breast cancer have been previously reported, this study uses a more refined forecasting method by including recent birth cohort patterns to forecast breast cancer to 2030 by age group, estrogen receptor-status, and invasive vs. in situ tumors.

New in this report are the findings for in situ tumors and the more granular break down by age, ER status, and invasive vs. in situ tumors both for rate and burden (number of cases).

Medical Research: What should clinicians and patients take away from your report?

Dr. Rosenberg: The main take-home message of our study is that in the future, the pattern of breast cancer incidence will be different from today. There will be fewer ER-negative tumors (in situ and invasive), but more ER-positive tumors, especially in the older population of women. In addition, since the overall rates for ER-positive in situ cancers are going up, our analysis suggests that future studies are needed to better understand how best to treat women with in situ disease.

Medical Research: What recommendations do you have for future research as a result of this study?

Dr. Rosenberg: Additional studies are needed to better understand how in situ tumors behave, and how best to treat them. In addition, we plan to project rates for women by race/ethnicity.

Citation:

Philip S. Rosenberg, Kimberly A. Barker, and William F. Anderson

Estrogen Receptor Status and the Future Burden of Invasive and In Situ Breast Cancers in the United StatesJNCI J Natl Cancer Inst (2015) 107 (9): djv159 doi:10.1093/jnci/djv159 First published online June 10, 2015 

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Philip S. Rosenberg, PhD (2015). Breast Cancer Pattern Likely To Change as Population Ages 

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