06 May New HIV Infections Drop But Less Than Task Force Goals
MedicalResearch.com Interview with:
Robert Bonacci
Robert Bonacci MPH, MD Candidate’16
University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: During the mid-2000’s, the HIV incidence rate stubbornly persisted around 50,000 infections per year. Responding to this trend, President Obama released the first comprehensive US National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS) in 2010. The NHAS hoped to spur a more coordinated national response and set ambitious targets for reducing HIV incidence (25 percent) and the transmission rate (30 percent), among other goals, by 2015.
To evaluate whether the U.S. achieved the NHAS goals by 2015, we used mathematical models drawing on data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on HIV prevalence and mortality for 2007 to 2012, and our own previously published incidence estimates from 2008-2012. Changes seen from 2010 through 2012 were extrapolated for the time period 2013 through 2015.
MedicalResearch.com: What are the main findings?
Response: We found that while the number of new HIV infections and the transmission rate in the United States dropped, they fell short of the goals outlined in the first NHAS. Specifically, there were approximately 33,218 new HIV infections in the U.S. in 2015, down from an estimated 37,366 in 2010 – a reduction of 11.1 percent. The HIV transmission rate – defined as the average annual number of disease transmissions per 100 people living with HIV – was estimated to be 2.61 in 2015, a reduction of 17.3 percent from the 2010 rate of 3.16.
MedicalResearch.com: What should clinicians and patients take away from your report?
Response: The good news is that the U.S. has made progress in reducing rates of HIV infection and transmission. Unfortunately, our models indicate that those gains were not enough to achieve the NHAS targets for 2015.
Scaling up HIV treatment and care alone was not enough either. In the second era of the NHAS, we need a simultaneous expansion of diagnostic and prevention services, to augment the previous expansion of treatment and care. Further to allocate limited federal and local resources strategically, we must place an intensified focus on communities disproportionately affected by HIV, particularly gay men, young people, transgender people, African American and Hispanic communities, and those who live in the southern U.S. For some of those communities, especially gay and other men who have sex with men, the epidemic may be worsening.
MedicalResearch.com: What recommendations do you have for future research as a result of this study?
Response: We believe it is essential that others also generate estimates and measurements of the NHAS impact to enhance the body of evaluative research. Additionally, research to understand and implement evidence-based strategies that address HIV prevention and treatment in our disproportionately affected communities is key.
MedicalResearch.com: Thank you for your contribution to the MedicalResearch.com community.
Citation:
Evaluating the Impact of the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy, 2010-2015.
Note: Content is Not intended as medical advice. Please consult your health care provider regarding your specific medical condition and questions.
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Last Updated on May 6, 2016 by Marie Benz MD FAAD