Type 1 Diabetes: New Model Predicts Major Outcomes

MedicalResearch.com Interview with:
Dr. Sabita Soedamah-Muthu
Division of Human Nutrition,Wageningen University
Wageningen, the Netherlands
and Prof Trevor Orchard
Department of Epidemiology,
Graduate School of Public Health,
University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

Medical Research: What are the main findings of the study?

Answer: We present a new prognostic model combining information on age, glycated haemoglobin, waist-hip ratio, albumin/creatinine ratio and HDL (good) cholesterol to assess the 3, 5 and 7 year risk of developing major outcomes in patients with type 1 diabetes.

Medical Research: Were any of the findings unexpected?

Answer: While all these prognostic factors are known to predict complications of diabetes, the strength of the waist-hip ratio was a little surprising and adds further strength to the hypothesis that weight gain and insulin resistance may have a key role in type 1 diabetes.

Medical Research: What should clinicians and patients take away from your report?

Answer: We provide a clinical tool to automatically assess the risk of developing major outcomes combining severe coronary heart disease, stroke, end stage renal failure, amputations, blindness and all-cause mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes.

This tool can aid physicians and patients to identify those at highest risk and focus the intervention following existing guidelines. It can also help to select high-risk populations for randomized controlled trials.

Medical Research: What recommendations do you have for future research as a result of this study?

Answer: In the future, we would like to update and further validate the model in other study populations and see prevention strategies developed based on these prognostic factors.


Trevor J. Orchard et al. Predicting major outcomes in type 1 diabetes: a model development and validation study. Diabetologia, August 2014 DOI: 10.1007/s00125-014-3358-x

Last Updated on January 7, 2015 by Marie Benz MD FAAD