14 Jan Small Changes in Physical Activity Behavior May Have Substantial Population Health Benefits

Prof. Ekelund

MedicalResearch.com Interview with:
Ulf Ekelund Ph.D.
Department of Sport Medicine, NSSS
Oslo, Norway and
Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo

MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study? What are the main findings?

Response:  Previous research including our own (Dose-response associations between accelerometry measured physical activity and sedentary time and all cause mortality: systematic review and harmonised meta-analysis | The BMJ) have shown that physical activity of any intensity reduces the risk for all-cause mortality. However, it is unclear how many deaths can potentially be averted by small and realistic increases in physical activity.

We estimated that 6% and 10% of all deaths might be preventable is all individuals in two hypothetical intervention scenarios increased their time in moderate to vigorous intensity activity by 5 min per day. The two scenarios were a “high-risk” comprising the least active 20% of the population and a “population based” approach comprising all but the most active 20% of the population (i.e. 80%). We also estimated that reducing sedentary time by 30 min/day might prevent 3·0% of all deaths in the high-risk approach and 7·3% in the population-based approach. 

Our results should be interpreted as if all individuals increased their levels of physical activity by 5 min per day, 6% and 10% of all deaths might be preventable in the two risk scenarios, respectively. This does not mean that the individual risk is reduced by these percentages from small increases in physical activity, since individuals respond differently to increasing their activity levels.

MedicalResearch.com: Would you give examples of the types of small physical activity changes can be implemented into daily life?

Response:  The most common activity in most individuals corresponding to at least moderate intensity is brisk walking at about 5 km/h pace. Another example of moderate intensity is cycling at about 10 miles/h or 16 km/h.

MedicalResearch.com: What should readers take away from your report?

Response:  Small changes in physical activity behaviour, especially in those who don’t do any activity, may have substantial population health benefits. Clinicians should encourage their patients, especially those who are inactive to take up any form of physical activity. Walking might be a great option. I recommend starting slowly by short walks and gradually build up to about 20 to 30 min of brisk walking daily. This is in line with the current physical activity recommendations from Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in the US and from WHO. 

MedicalResearch.com: What recommendations do you have for future research as a results of this study?

Response: Our results are derived from cohorts in the US and Scandinavia, and additional research is needed in low- and middle-income countries. Future research may also examine the potential number of deaths averted by small increases in daily steps and examine the effect of small increases in physical activity on other outcomes such as cardio-vascular disease incidence.

MedicalResearch.com: Is there anything else you would like to add? Any disclosures?

Response: I want to stress that our results cannot be interpreted on individual level, thus our results don’t suggest that increasing moderate intensity every day by 5 minutes lower the risk of death in individuals. I have no disclosures related to this research.

Citation:

Deaths potentially averted by small changes in physical activity and sedentary time: an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies
Ekelund, Ulf et al.
The Lancet, Volume 0, Issue 0
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)02219-6/abstract

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Last Updated on January 14, 2026 by Marie Benz MD FAAD