Dr. Dar[/caption]
Dr. Arvin C. Dar, PhD
Associate Professor
Departments of Oncological Sciences
& Pharmacological Sciences
Tisch Cancer Institute
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Associate Director
Mount Sinai Center for Therapeutic Discovery
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: We were interested in better understanding the mechanism of action for the drug trametinib. We wanted to understand how the drug actually works – even though its clinically approved, the drug was a ‘serendipitous discovery’ and originally found through phenotypic screens.
Dr. Glicksberg[/caption]
Benjamin Glicksberg, PhD
Assistant Professor of Genetics and Genomic Sciences
Member of the Mount Sinai COVID Informatics Center
Member of the Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Healt
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: Reports from health systems that detailed the clinical characteristics and outcomes of their COVID-19 patients were instrumental in helping other health systems rapidly adapt and know what to expect. There are few studies, however, that assess what happens to these patients after they were discharged from the hospital.
In our work, we address this gap by determining both how many individuals re-present to the hospital within 14 days, and what clinical characteristics of these patients differ from those who do not. Such information is critical in order to continue to refine optimal treatment plans and discharge decisions for patients of all backgrounds and clinical profiles. To provide more context to the question, we also determined if and how these factors changed between initial presentation and readmission to the hospital.
Dr. Fisher[/caption]
Robert Fisher, MD, PhD
Professor of Oncological Sciences
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Member of The Tisch Cancer Institute
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: Gene transcription by RNA polymerase II underlies cellular identity, and cell fate decisions such as proliferation or death, and is regulated by enzymes that add phosphates (kinases) or remove them (phosphatases) from components of the transcription machinery. Here we define two kinase-phosphatase switches that regulate different steps of the transcription cycle in human cancer cells.
We raised antibodies specific for different phosphorylated states of a key elongation factor, Spt5, and used genomic analyses such as chromatin immunoprecipitation and sequencing (ChIP-seq) to monitor when these phosphorylations were added and removed, and by which kinases and phosphatases, respectively, as RNA polymerase II traversed genes in human cancer cells.
Dr. Gnjatic[/caption]
Sacha Gnjatic, PhD
Associate Director of the Human Immune Monitoring Center
Associate Professor of Medicine, Oncological Sciences and Pathology
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Member of the Precision Immunology Institute and The Tisch Cancer Institute
Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study? Would you explain what is meant by cytokine/cytokines?
Response: COVID-19 is a disease where inflammation is suspected to play a large role in pathogenicity, possibly more so than the tissue damage created by the virus alone. Cytokines are small soluble proteins that are produced by both immune cells and cells from tissues, and many play a role in signaling such inflammation, to alert of tissue damage or infection. Among these cytokines, interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-8, IL-1beta, and Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNF-a) have been well established as important markers of pathogenic inflammation. Drugs that counteract these cytokines are routinely use in various inflammatory disease, from rheumatoid arthritis to plaque psoriasis and Crohn’s disease. When the initial wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection hit our hospitals in New York, we therefore wondered whether these cytokines were associated with COVID-19 disease severity and outcome, and hoped that a rapid test to detect them in blood could be useful to make clinical decisions about treatment. We were able to analyze a very large number of patient samples (>1400) in a period of one month, and confirmed our findings in a second smaller cohort.
Dr. Aggarwal[/caption]
Professor Aneel K Aggarwal, PhD
Pharmacological Sciences and Oncological Sciences
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: DNA polymerase ζ (Pol ζ) is the crucial enzyme that allows cells to cope with DNA damage resulting from exposure to environmental and industrial carcinogens and to other daily genotoxic stresses. At the same time, Pol ζ has emerged as an important target for discovery of therapeutics in the treatment of chemotherapy-resistant cancers.
MedicalResearch.com: What are the main findings?
Response: We have succeeded in resolving the 3-D atomic structure of the complete Pol ζ enzyme using cryo-electron microscopy.
Dr. Guttman-Yassky[/caption]
Emma Guttman-Yassky, MD, PhD
Professor of Dermatology and Immunology
Vice Chair of the Department of Dermatology
Icahn School of Medicine
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study? What is the importance of differentiating these two skin conditions?
Response: The background is that up to now skin biopsies were considered the gold standard for obtaining skin biomarkers of atopic dermatitis/AD and psoriasis that are linked to disease activity in skin and for obtaining the cutaneous gene and protein expression fingerprint of each individual disease. Biopsies are also used in clinical trials to obtain the skin phenotype. However biopsies are invasive, painful and scarring. Thus we need less invasive means to profile diseases and obtain biomarkers. Tape strips is a minimally invasive approach to sample and study the skin. However, prior studies using tape strips could not fully capture the phenotype of the diseases and also sampling the recovery rate was less than optimal, not allowing this approach to be widely used. Psoriasis and AD are the most common inflammatory skin diseases, but these diseases are treated very differently and in some cases are very difficult to differentiate between them clinically and even in biopsies.
Dr. Millar[/caption]
Sarah E. Millar, Ph.D.
Director, Black Family Stem Cell Institute
Professor, Departments of Cell, Developmental and Regenerative Biology and Dermatology
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
New York, NY
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: One of the major roles of the skin is to serve as a protective barrier, both preventing external insults, such as toxins and pathogens, from entering the body, and helping to retain moisture. The mechanisms required for appropriate skin barrier formation remain incompletely understood. Elucidating these processes is important for understanding and developing improved treatments for dermatological diseases in which the skin barrier is dysfunctional, such as eczema and psoriasis.
Understanding epigenetic regulators, proteins that modify the structure of genetic material, is an area of scientific interest, as many new drugs target these proteins. Importantly, multiple epigenetic regulators have been shown to be important in skin development. My lab has focused on one group of epigenetic regulators, histone deacetylases (HDACs), because HDAC inhibitors show promise for treating several different cancers and other disorders in which cell proliferation is poorly controlled. We previously showed that HDACs 1 and 2 are required for normal skin development.
In the current study, we investigated whether the related protein HDAC3 is also important in establishing the skin barrier.
Dr. Smith[/caption]
Cardinale Smith, MD, PhD
Associate Professor
Medicine, Hematology and Medical Oncology and
Geriatrics and Palliative Medicine
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
New York
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: Cancer patients are often hospitalized with complications from cancer and cancer treatment. Physical decline is common among hospitalized cancer patients and contributes to poorer outcomes including increased length of stay, excess days, readmissions and patient experiences. Therefore, increased activity and mobilization during hospitalization are essential to prevent functional decline.
Whereas previous research has focused on risk factors that limit mobility and interventions for enhancing mobility in well-functioning, community dwelling older adults, there have been limited interventions on the mobility of hospitalized cancer patients.
Dr. Galsky[/caption]
Matthew Galsky, MD
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
New York, NY
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study? Would you explain what is meant by switch maintenance immunotherapy?
Response: For decades, platinum-based chemotherapy has been standard first-line treatment for metastatic urothelial (bladder) cancer. The standard approach to first-line chemotherapy is to administered approximately 6 cycles of treatment (in the absence of disease progression or prohibitive side effects), and then to stop treatment and monitor. Unfortunately, virtually all patients with metastatic disease will experience disease progression after stopping chemotherapy. However, we know that if we just continue the same platinum-based chemotherapy until progression of cancer (rather than stopping after ~6 cycles), the side effects continue to accumulate but the benefits plateau.
Approximately 5 years ago, the first new systemic therapies were approved to treatment metastatic urothelial cancer in decades, immune checkpoint inhibitors (PD-1 or PD-L1 inhibitors). In fact, 5 PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors have been approved by the FDA for the treatment of patients with metastatic urothelial cancer progressing despite prior platinum-based chemotherapy. Given that these drugs are non-cross resistant with chemotherapy in at least a subset of patients (i.e., they can provide benefit even when chemotherapy is no longer working), and because they are well tolerated by a large proportion of patients, a logical question is rather than waiting until cancer progresses after stopping first-line chemotherapy, what if we started immunotherapy immediately. Switch maintenance refers to switching from chemotherapy to a different class of drug (e.g., immunotherapy) and maintenance refers to trying to "maintain" the response achieved with initial chemotherapy.
Dr. Colombel[/caption]
Jean-Frederic Colombel MD
The Henry D Janowitz Division of Gastroenterology
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sina
New York, NY 10029, USA
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: The goals of therapy in Crohn’s disease have shifted from mere control of symptoms also called clinical remission towards combination of clinical and endoscopic remission also called deep remission which is now considered as the new therapeutic “target”. However it has yet to be proven that targeting deep remission instead of clinical remission is able to stop the progression of Crohn’s disease towards bowel damage, complications and hospitalizations.
This study is a post-hoc analysis of the CALM trial that was published in The Lancet in 2018 where newly diagnosed patients were randomized to escalate therapy based on symptoms only (control arm) or based on a combination of symptoms and two biomarkers namely C-reactive protein in blood and calprotectin in stools (tight control arm).
Dr. Stewart[/caption]
Andrew F. Stewart MD
Director, Diabetes Obesity and Metabolism Institute
Irene and Dr. Arthur M. Fishberg Professor of Medicine
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
New York, NY 10029
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: Both common forms of diabetes result from reductions in the numbers of healthy insulin-producing beta cells in the pancreas. Having said that, people with both T1D and T2D almost always have residual beta cells. One way to approach this problem is by pancreas or islet transplant, or stem cell transplant approaches. These cannot easily or economically be scaled to the 30 million people in the US and the 420 million in the world with diabetes.
Therefore, our approach is to develop drugs that can make the remaining beta cells regenerate and re-fill the beta cell tank.
Dr. Howell[/caption]
Elizabeth A. Howell, MD, MPP
Director of The Blavatnik Family Women’s Health Research Institute
Mount Sinai Health System Vice Chair for Research
Professor in the Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Science
Associate Dean for Academic Development
Professor Department of Population Health Science and Policy
Icahn Mount Sinai, New York
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: Previous research has demonstrated racial and ethnic disparities in severe maternal morbidity rates in hospitals and that between-hospital differences -- i.e., Black and Latina mothers receiving care at hospitals with worse outcomes -- explain a sizable portion of these disparities. However, less attention has been paid to within-hospital disparities -- whether Black and Latina mothers have worse outcomes than White mothers who deliver in the SAME hospital.
In this paper, we set out to measure within-hospital racial and ethnic disparities and to evaluate the potential contribution of insurance type to these disparities.
Our study question was based on the observation that women with Medicaid can follow different care pathways than women with private insurance. Pregnant women insured by Medicaid are often seen by resident physicians with attending coverage that may differ from attending physicians caring for commercially insured women. In addition, Medicaid reimbursement for delivery hospitalization is far less than that for commercially insured.
Dr. Villanueva Rodriguez[/caption]
Augusto Villanueva Rodriguez, MD, PhD
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
New York, NY
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: There is limited understanding of the extent of molecular heterogeneity in liver cancer. This cancer is the second most lethal tumor and the fourth cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide.
Most patients diagnosed at advanced stages have a dismal survival, as most of them will develop resistance to systemic therapies. One of the potential mechanisms for this relates to the presence of different tumor clones within the same tumor nodule. This heterogeneity has been barely studied in liver cancer and our study provides a comprehensive analysis of the extent and potential clinical implications of intra-tumoral heterogeneity (ITH) in liver cancer.
Dr. Parekh[/caption]
Dr. Samir Parekh, MBBS
Associate Professor
Medicine, Hematology and Medical Oncology
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study? Would you briefly describe what is meant by 'neoantigens'? How might they be used to stimulate immunity in a multiple myeloma patients?
Response: Myeloma is considered a “cold” tumor for immunotherapy (as compared to some solid tumors such as melanoma) given the relatively fewer DNA mutations in an average myeloma patient. Our clinical experience suggests that this may not be totally correct. Our findings focus on mutations that can become antigens (neo-antigens) and challenges the stereotype. We can create vaccines based on peptides resulting from these mutations to stimulate immune responses.
Dr. Chen[/caption]
Tiffany Won-Shau Chen MD
Internal Medicine Residency
Mount Sinai Beth Israel
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: The research I presented on details a randomized, prospective study done to evaluate whether it would be feasible and effective to implement a yoga program for breast cancer patients receiving chemotherapy that could reduce patients' chemotherapy-related symptoms and improve their quality of life.
50 patients were recruited, half of whom underwent a 12-week long yoga program with weekly courses, while the other half did not participate in the program.
Surveys were completed at baseline, 6 weeks, and 12 weeks assessing patients' functional wellbeing, sleep quality, and anxiety/depression levels.
Dr. Blanter[/caption]
Dr. Julia Blanter, MD MS
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
First author of the study
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: The Oncotype DX Breast Cancer Assay was developed to genetically profile patients with early stage, hormone positive breast cancer and predict their 10-year risk of distant recurrence. A high-risk recurrence score is associated with a benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy whereas a low risk recurrence score is associated with little to no benefit.
BRCA mutated tumors have been associated with higher risk recurrence scores as compared to BRCA negative breast cancer patients. However, there have been minimal studies relating discordance to BRCA mutations. Discordance refers to a poorly differentiated or high-grade tumor with a low risk recurrence score. Prior studies demonstrated 7-19% discordance, or difference between recurrence score and tumor grade in breast cancer patients regardless of BRCA mutation status.
It has been concluded that patients who exhibit discordance may benefit from additional therapy in conjunction with endocrine therapy.
Dr. Marcellino[/caption]
Bridget Marcellino, MD
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Mount Sinai Hospital
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: Our work focuses on elucidating the mechanisms that drive the pathogenesis and progression of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN). Dysregulation of the TP53 pathway is associated with MPN progression evidenced by the association of TP53 loss of heterozygosity with transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and the presence of inactivating mutations of TP53 found in a proportion of MPN-related AML patients. Studies have shown that TP53 mutations, TP53 deletions and overexpression of the negative regulator of TP53, Murine Double Minute 2 (MDM2) all contribute to TP53 downregulation in MPNs and we therefore are interested in exploring other potential means by which TP53 is downregulated. Protein Phosphatase, Mg2+/Mn2+
Dependent 1D (PPM1D) is another negative regulator of the TP53 pathway and activating mutations in this gene are present in myeloid malignancies including MPNS. We therefore hypothesized that genomic alterations in PPM1D and/or overexpression of PPM1D would be found in the hematopoietic cells of MPN patients.
Dr. Jian Jin[/caption]
Jian Jin, Ph.D.
Mount Sinai Endowed Professor in Therapeutics Discovery
Professor, Department of Pharmacological Sciences
Professor, Department of Oncological Sciences
Director, Mount Sinai Center for Therapeutics Discovery
Co-leader, Cancer Clinical Investigation Program, Tisch Cancer Institute
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), a subtype of breast cancer that lacks estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), represents 12-20% of all breast cancers. TNBC has poor prognosis, high recurrence, a low survival rate, and has higher incidence in African-American and Hispanic women. Currently, there are no effective therapies for treating a substantial portion of TNBC patients.
Enhancer of zeste homolog 2 (EZH2) is the main enzymatic subunit of the polycomb repressive complex 2 (PRC2) which catalyzes trimethylation of histone H3 lysine 27 (H3K27me3) to promote transcriptional silencing. EZH2 is overexpressed in multiple types of cancer including triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) and high expression levels correlate with poor prognosis. Several EZH2 inhibitors which inhibit the enzymatic activity of EZH2 have shown promise in treating sarcoma and follicular lymphoma in clinics. However, current EZH2 inhibitors are ineffective at blocking proliferation of TNBC cells even though they effectively inhibit the enzymatic activity of EZH2. While the proteolysis targeting chimera (PROTAC) technology for selective degradation of the target protein has been rapidly gaining momentum in the drug discovery field, the hydrophobic tagging approach for selective protein degradation has received considerately less attention from the scientific community.
Dr. Maria Del Pilar Brito[/caption]
Maria Brito, MD
Co-Director, Mount Sinai’s Thyroid Center
Assistant Professor, Medicine, Endocrinology, Diabetes and Bone Disease
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: There have been reports of seasonal fluctuations in thyroid function, however there are no standard guidelines for management of such fluctuations and their clinical implications. It is not a well-studied subject and there are insufficient guidelines around its clinical implications.
MedicalResearch.com: What are the main findings?
Response: Our patient had winter elevation of TSH and summer normalisation repeatedly over a course of three years, but remained largely asymptomatic despite the biochemical alterations.
Dr. Davies[/caption]
Terry Davies, MD
Co-Director, The Thyroid Center at Mount Sinai Union Square
Professor, Medicine, Endocrinology, Diabetes and Bone Disease
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study? What are the main findings?
Response: Many tissues contain stem cells that are responsible for regeneration and repair after injury. The mechanism of thyroid regeneration and the role of thyroid stem cells in this process is poorly understood. This an exploration of how the thyroid gland repairs itself.
Using a mouse model we found that a damaged gland can correct itself within 4 weeks and this involves a rapid increase in stem cells driving the repair.
Dr. Pasquale[/caption]
Louis R. Pasquale, MD
Professor of Ophthalmology
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai;
Site Chair of the Department of
Ophthalmology at The Mount Sinai Hospital and Mount Sinai Queens;
Vice Chair of Translational Ophthalmology Research
Mount Sinai Health System
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study? What are the main findings?
Response: Individual visual field tests provide a 52-point array of functional information about a glaucoma patient but it does not give us a handle on how functionally disabled they might be. A series of visual field tests need to be assessed for functional progression but current conventional algorithms for doing so are governed by ad hoc rules and the various algorithms available for assessing progression do not agree with one another. Finally, in managed care setting where one might be responsible for allocating resources for large numbers of glaucoma patients, it would be valuable to quickly visualize which patients are progressing rapidly and which ones are stable. This could allow for proper allocation of resources and perhaps inquiry into why a subset of patients are doing poorly.
We wanted to develop an easy to use tool to quickly visualize how individual glaucoma patients and how groups of glaucoma patients are doing from a functional perspective.
Dr. Ahmad[/caption]
Sumayya Ahmad, MD
Assistant Professor of Ophthalmology
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: The cornea is usually curved like a basketball or a globe. Roughly all of the edges are about equal distant from the center. With this shape, light enters the eye normally and the image is not distorted. However, not all eyes are shaped that way.
About 30% of eyes have astigmatism, in which the cornea is shaped like a football, or elongated in one axis. If the longest diameter is up and down, we call that with the rule astigmatism, and if it is to the side, we call that against-the rule astigmatism.
A lot of studies have been devoted to astigmatism over the years, but nobody has looked at it from a population perspective in the United States and tried to figure out the relationships it may have. Most studies are from one center or other country's databases, but not ours. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, or NHANES, is a survey composed in the United States each year that looks at a representative sample of people from across the country. It's a great way to study the relationship between the environment and people. We tried to look at demographic factors (like age, gender, race) and ocular factors related to against and with the rule astigmatism.
Dr. Jiang[/caption]
Changchuan (Charles) Jiang MD, MPH
MSSLW Internal Medicine Residency Program
Class of 2020
Ichan School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: Chronic pain is one of the common side effects of cancer treatments and it has been linked to low life quality, lower adherence to treatment, higher medical cost. As the population of cancer survivors grows rapidly, chronic pain will be a major public health issue in this population. We know from previous studies that chronic pain is common in certain cancers such as breast cancer. However, little was known about the epidemiology of chronic pain in the cancer survivors until our study.
Dr. Taioli[/caption]
Emanuela Taioli, MD, PhD,
Director of the Institute for Translational Epidemiology
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Asociate director for Population Science
Tisch Cancer Institute
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study? What are the main findings?
Response: An excess incidence of prostate cancer has been identified among World Trade Center responders. We wanted to study if this excess was associated with exposure to WTC dust
The results suggest that respiratory exposure to WTC dust can induce inflammatory and immune responses in prostate tissue. Chronic inflammation could facilitate prostate cancer development
Taken together, our results suggest that World Trade Center prostate cancer cases have a distinct gene expression pattern that may be the result of exposure to specific carcinogens during the WTC attacks. WTC dust-exposed rat prostate displayed unique changes in gene expression and immune cell infiltrates after acute dust exposure, suggesting that the effect of exposure may be measured locally in target organs such as prostate. In addition, some of the genes overexpressed in rat normal prostates as a consequence of exposure are also overexpressed in human prostate cancer tissues, suggesting a link between exposure, local immune dysregulation, and prostate cancer development
Dr. Karastergiou[/caption]Kalypso Karastergiou, MD, PhD
Assistant Professor, Medicine, Endocrinology, Diabetes and Bone Disease
Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism Institute
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: Multiple studies, epidemiological as well as clinical, have established that body shape is an important and independent predictor of cardiovascular and metabolic disease risk and ultimately total mortality. Subjects that preferentially store weight in the abdominal area (often described as android, upper-body or apple-shape obesity) are at increased risk, whereas those who preferentially store weight in the lower body, in the gluteofemoral area (gynoid, lower-body or pear-shape), appear to be protected. The former is more common in men, whereas the latter in women, especially premenopausal women.
The overarching questions in the field are:
There is increasing financial interest in oncology so addressing the risk associated with financial interactions with industry and conflicts of interest are more important than ever....
Dr. Kaplan[/caption]
Steven A. Kaplan, M.D., FACS
Professor of Urology
Director, The Men's Health Program
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study?
Response: PLUS is the first large-scale trial conducted in North America and Europe specifically designed to study the effects of mirabegron in controlling residual symptoms of urinary urgency and frequency in men with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) using common agents such as tamsulosin (Flomax).
We explored whether mirabegron (Myrbetriq), an agent approved for the treatment of overactive bladder (OAB), improved patient outcomes when added to tamsulosin. This was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-center study enrolling 715 male patients 40 years of age and older.
Dr. DeFelice[/caption]
Nicholas B. DeFelice, PhD
Department of Environmental Medicine & Public Health
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
New York, New York
MedicalResearch.com: What is the background for this study? What are the main findings?
Response: Effective allocation of public health resources during an outbreak is complicated and often reactive. Thus, it is important that we develop quantitative tools that can accurately and rapidly forecast the progression of an outbreak and provide decision support. Recently, several advancements have been made in the realm of infectious disease forecasting: it is a field that is growing in exciting directions. However, for these forecasting tools to work in real time, we must understand how the forecasting apparatus and observational network work in real time to ensure they are sufficient to support accurate operational predictions.
We previously showed that accurate and reliable forecasts of West Nile virus outbreaks can be made using surveillance data and a mathematical model representing the interactions between birds, mosquitoes and risk of human spillover. This model system was able to retrospectively forecast mosquito infection rates prior to the week of peak mosquito infection, and to forecast accurately the seasonal total number of human West Nile virus cases prior to when the majority of cases were reported.
For this study, we were interested in the data flow process and the question of whether appropriate infrastructure is in place to support real time forecasting. If this forecast system were made operational in real time, public health officials would have an evidence-based decision-support tool to help
1) actively target control of infected mosquito populations (i.e., larviciding and adulticiding),
2) alert the public to future periods of elevated West Nile virus spillover transmission risk, and
3) identify when to intensify blood donor screening.