MedicalResearch.com Interview with:
John M. Drake, Ph.D.
Associate Professor, Odum School of Ecology
University of Georgia
Director, Population Biology of Infectious Diseases REU Site
Medical Research: What is the background for this study? What are the main findings?
Dr. Drake: Ebola virus disease is a deadly illness caused by infection with the zoonotic Ebola virus. The world's largest epidemic of Ebola virus disease is currently ongoing in West Africa, concentrated in the countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Ebola emerges in a human population after contact with an infected animal host and persists through human-to-human transmission. Persons with late stage illness are especially infectious. Ebola outbreaks are typically contained by outbreak investigation and patient isolation. But, as the current epidemic shows, containment may be very difficult to achieve in areas of high population density or where there is little health infrastructure.
During the second half of 2014, the West African nation of Liberia suffered the greatest rates of Ebola transmission. Slowing the spread of Ebola was found to be especially difficult after the virus reached the urban areas around Monrovia, particularly the township of West Point. The United States, other nations, and non-governmental organizations promised aid and developed a plan to improve Liberia's health infrastructure, but many aspects of urban Ebola transmission were then unknown, including the relative importance of hospital- and community-acquired infection, how much hospital capacity must be increased to provide care for the anticipated patient burden, and what level patient of isolation would be required to contain the outbreak. To address these issues, we developed a model for Ebola transmission that accounted for the separate sites at which infection could occur, for instance in the home, in public places (particularly at funerals), or in health facilities. Based on information available by mid-October, it was not clear whether enough was being done to contain the epidemic in Liberia. But, through public vigilance and community participation, particularly the willingness of infected persons to be treated in health facilities and to allow safe handling of the bodies of the deceased, transmission dropped dramatically in the last quarter of the year. An updated version of our model developed in early December suggests that if these gains can be maintained then the epidemic may be over by the middle of 2015. (more…)