Author Interviews, Lung Cancer, PLoS / 03.12.2014
Lung Cancer: More Efficient CT Screening Model Proposed
MedicalResearch.com Interview with:
Dr. Martin C. Tammemägi
Professor (Epidemiology), Brock University
Department of Health Sciences
St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada L2S 3A1
Medical Research: What is the background for this study? What are the main findings?
Dr. Tammemägi: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in North America and the world. Lung cancer survival following diagnosis is generally poor, in the range of 10% to 15%, and has improved little over the last four decades. The biggest recent breakthrough for reducing lung cancer mortality came with the findings of the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), a large, well-conducted randomized screening trial, which demonstrated that low dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening versus chest X-ray (CXR) screening can reduce lung cancer mortality by 20%. Currently, most guidelines for selecting screenees for lung screening use the NLST enrolment criteria of 30 or more pack-years smoked, former smokers must have quit smoking within 15 years and ages between 55 and 74, or use a variant of the NLST criteria. The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) essentially recommends using the NLST criteria but extended the inclusion age to 80 years.
The current study applied the PLCOm2012 lung cancer risk prediction model1 to NLST data and identified that the risk above which lung cancer mortality is consistently lower in the LDCT arm compared to the CXR arm, is ≥1.51% 6-year risk (65th percentile). The USPSTF and the PLCOm2012 risk ≥0.0151 criteria were then applied to the Prostate Lung Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) intervention arm smokers (the PLCOm2012 was developed in PLCO controls) to determine who would be selected for lung cancer screening. Compared to USPSTF criteria, the PLCOm2012 risk ≥0.0151 threshold selected 8.8% fewer individuals, but identified 12.4% more lung cancers (sensitivity 80.1% vs. 71.2%), and had fewer false positives (specificity 66.2% vs. 62.7%). 26% of smokers who were USPSTF criteria positive had risks below the PLCOm2012 risk ≥0.0151 threshold. Of PLCO former smokers who quit more than 15 years ago, 8.5% had PLCOm2012 risk ≥0.0151, suggesting that they might benefit from screening (2.9% of them developed lung cancer in 6 year). None of 65,711 never-smokers in the PLCO had PLCOm2012 risk ≥0.0151, indicating that never-smokers should not be screened. Individuals age ≥65–80 years had significantly higher risks and more lung cancers than those 55-64 years.
(more…)